United States Climate Alliance

Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 10.14.44 AM.png

Even though President Trump withdrew the United States Federal Government from the Paris Agreement onClimate Change, it doesn’t prevent US States or cities from continuing to uphold the agreement. So far, 13 states have committed to Paris Agreement and ~200 cities (including the all of the top 10 largest cities: NYC, LA, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, and San Jose). The map above displays the US states that are currently still in the Paris agreement in blue and the states considering joining the group in green. This group (in blue) made up 30.6% of the US population and 35.9% of US GDP in 2016. Roughly speaking, it can be said that 1/3 of the United States is still part of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The map below displays the cities in the agreement (in red) and states in or considering joining the USCA in green (as of June 1).

Cities in Paris agreement.png

Political Cartoon Map, 2016

Political comedy.png

Above is a cartoon map displaying Europe’s current political climate. Trump re-writing the NATO agreement, the Baltic States pushing back Russian expansion into Eastern Europe, Britain moving further away from the EU after their Brexit vote – what else stands out to you from the map?

Expansion of Russia

Screen Shot 2017-03-20 at 12.45.13 PM.png

Russia is the world’s largest country in area with nearly 11% of the world’s landmass. This area is approximately the size of the United States and Canada combined! It is a transcontinental country with territory extending into Europe and Asia. In fact, its Asian land portion alone makes it the largest country in Asia and its European land portion alone makes it the largest country in Europe! Above is a map displaying the expansion of Russian territory from 1613 to 1914. Despite all this growth in territory over the years, approximately 80% of Russia’s population still lives in the Green or Yellow portions on the map above (territory Russia controlled dating back to 1613).

Millennial Voting

Screen Shot 2017-01-22 at 8.27.57 PM.png

Above is a map displaying how millennials voted in the 2016 election. If only millennials were able to vote, it would have been an overwhelming victory for the Democratic Party: 504 to 23. Demographers William Straus and Neil Howe define ‘Millennials’ as being born between 1982 and 2004 – however, there is not an exact dividing line. Birth years can range between 1983 and 2001 for some demographers, such as Elwood Carlson. What seems to be clear is that as millennials age and become a larger political force, the country may become increasingly democratic in future elections.

Trumpland and Clinton Islands

Clinton islands.png

It’s informative to display how small of the country, by area, Hilary Clinton won in the 2016 Presidental Election. Above is a map of the regions of the country Hilary won (Clinton Islands) and below is the area of the country Trump won (Trumpland). Given the area difference alone, it appears that Trump won in a landslide, however, in fact, he lost the popular vote by more than 2% to Clinton! This is due to the large differences in population density each candidate won – put simply, Clinton won in the cities and Trump won in the rural areas. The highest percentage Trump supporting region was the central plans while the largest Clinton supporting regions were the San Francisco Bay Area and eastern seaboard running from Washington DC to Boston.

Trumpland.png

Congress and President

Congress and President.png

Not only did Donald Trump win the 2016 presidential election, but both the House of Representative and the Senate are majority controlled by the Republican party. Above is a chart displaying which party has controlled congress and the presidency running back through 1855. The Senate is the top chart, the House is the bottom chart, and presidential party in office is the middle color strip between the two. The color indicates which party controlled each branch of congress and the height of the bars in each chart indicate what percentage the controlling party had in those years. Since the great depression, congress has been mostly controlled by the Democrats – having the majority of seats in both the Senate and House for 62 years out of the 84. Since the 1990’s, control in congress has narrowed between the two parties and control as flipped back-and-forth more often than in the previous periods. The 2017 version will feature Republican control in all three for the first time since President Bush II in 2008.

Voter Demographics 2016

Screen Shot 2016-11-19 at 9.43.36 PM.png

Above is a graphic displaying the Republican share of the two-party votes relative to square miles per voter (i.e. population density). As expected, Democrats won a larger fraction of urban areas, on average, while Republicans won more rural areas. Democrats also won a larger share of college graduates, all be it a slim margin 49% to 45%, but won by a substantial margin in both non-white college graduates and the non-white non-college graduate population – 71% and 75% respectively.

Below is a graphic displaying the percentage change in voting behavior for various demographic groups compared to the 2012 election. Trump won a larger percentage of votes in all categories (including Male, White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian) except for Women voters who voted by a 1% larger margin for Hillary than for Obama in 2012.

Screen Shot 2016-11-19 at 9.42.05 PM.png

Electoral College Vs. US Population

EC vs Pop map.png

Hilary Clinton won the popular election 47.7% to 47.4% despite losing the electoral college by a wide margin to Donald Trump. This is only the second time since 1888 that a candidate has won the popular vote, but not the election. This situation has lead some to question if the electoral college system is really the best way to select a president. Liberals claim that it is not fair as large, densely populated states have proportionally less say then less populated rural states that have a minimum 3 electoral votes regardless of population. This claim was interesting, so I decided to investigate further.

Above is a map displaying the relative difference among the states regarding their ‘over representation’ or ‘under representation’ given population. Orange colored bubbles mean the state has a higher fraction of US population than the fraction of electoral college votes. For example, California has 12.2% of US population, yet only 10.2% of electoral college votes. This is also the case for Texas (8.5% of population verse 7% of electoral college) and likewise for all other orange colored states. The size of the bubble signals a larger margin of under representation.

On the other end of the spectrum, the green colored bubbles mean the state has a higher fraction of electoral college votes compared to their fraction of US population. For example, Wyoming has 0.18% of US population yet has 0.56% of the electoral college – that is, 3 votes out of 538. Again the larger the green bubble signals a wider margin between electoral college votes compared to relative population.

The smaller the bubbles, whether green or orange, means that state was very close to proportional representation between the electoral college and population. For example, Washington state had 2.2% of US population and 2.2% of electoral college votes.

Comparing how the 18 most over represented states voted results in 9 Republican and 9 Democratic states. That is, for every rural over represented Republican state like Wyoming, Alaska, and North Dakota – there are an equal number of small over represented Democratic states like Vermont, Washington DC, and Delaware. To claim the election was lost due to under populated Republican states is inaccurate. The election was won in the battle ground, medium sized swing states of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – all of whom voted Republican this year instead of Democratic was they did in 2012 and 2008.

Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 5.27.51 PM.png

Above is a table of the 18 most over represented states by electoral college votes. The ‘Elect Diff’ column is the difference between the electoral college percentage minus the US population percent the state has. The ‘Demo16’ column is the Democratic vote percentage, ‘Rep16’ is the Republican vote percentage, ‘Other16’ is the sum of third party vote percentage, and ‘D-R Spread’ is the Democratic vote percentage minus the Republican vote percentage.

Guns and Suicide

Screen Shot 2016-10-21 at 1.26.53 AM.png

The third presidential debate finished a few days ago and one of the first topics discussed concerned the second amendment, the right to bear arms. Pro-gun advocates claim that more guns make an area safer, while gun regulation advocates claim the opposite. What does data reveal on the topic?

Each year the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence releases the “Gun Law State Scorecard”. This scorecard grades states from A to F on the laws in place to regulate firearm purchases. Above is a map of the US displaying these grades: An “A” grade is colored black, B dark grey, C light grey, D pink, and F red.

Comparing state grades with the suicide rate reveals some insightful findings. Why compare gun regulations to suicide rates you ask? From 2010 to 2014, suicide was the highest cause of gun related deaths in the US – 64.9% of all gun deaths in the US resulted from suicide. The comparison with gun laws revealed there is a high correlation between the number of gun laws and the number of suicides. States with grade A or B gun laws tended to have the lowest suicides rates per capita. In fact, their is a consistent trend of increasing suicide rates for decreasing gun law grades. Said differently, as gun regulations decrease, suicide rates increase. This increase are not trivial either. The average grade F state has 3 times the number of suicides than the average grade A state.